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China paper demand drastically shrinking, the mill downtime pressure surge

by:NEW BAMBOO PAPER     2020-12-05
According to the escalating trade disputes, increased the market's wait-and-see attitude, which is bearish export-oriented foreign trade packaging materials demand forecast. At the same time, domestic demand presents the weakness, also the whole society total retail sales of consumer goods in July year-on-year growth 8. 5%, well below expectations, the lowest since 2008 decade, the market demand and capacity sharply shrinking, and packing paper involves all aspects of life and consumption, thus the corresponding packing paper demand will shrink a lot. The raw material, waste paper external facing outside policy restrictions on imports, domestic also intensify strict controls on the quality of waste paper, waste paper overall supply tightening expectations. Waste paper short-term shocks to adjust prices, subject to the supply pressure, long term prices sharply lower resistance stronger. If the situation is not optimistic, substantial downstream demand start mill downtime pressure will increase, with the cost of the dual effects of surface pressure, some small and medium-sized enterprises will be eliminated, leading enterprises cost advantage, industry concentration will continue to ascend. In addition, 10% of the tariff will not take effect immediately, but will be after two months of the review process, will be at the end of the August 30 public consultation into effect; And overseas network real-time, the United States senate has landslide through the proposal, limit the trump tariff rights. Late the pulp market in addition to the supply and demand, also still need to pay close attention to policy changes, short-term industry are strong wait-and-see atmosphere.
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